Friday, March 02, 2007

Political Predictions and Predilictions

I was thrilled to learn that An Inconvenient Truth won an Oscar for best documentary. The 2008 Democratic nomination is now Al Gore's for the taking -- all he has to do is ask for it. No longer the wooden caricature of a candidate that he played during the 2000 election, the guy has relocated his backbone and his moral center and can now re-enter the political arena as a superstar, and I predict he'll do it, despite all his protestations to the contrary. If I had to bet money that he'll toss his hat in the ring by a particular time, I'd say it will be by the end of September of this year.

Further predictions:

  • Richardson will drop out by the end of summer, as will Biden and Dodd. They just won't be getting enough mo' (money OR momentum) to keep going.

  • Kucinich will stay in to the bitter end to make a point, much like he did in 2000, and I respect that -- I think he has some worthwhile arguments to make in favor of creating a Dept. of Peace. Personally I think he'd make a great President, but I know many in this country find his beliefs too far to the left.

    Me with Dennis Kucinich at the 2004 Dem. Convention in Boston

  • Edwards will hang on with grit and determination fighting for the common man, even if he's running on fumes and a shoestring campaign budget, while Clinton and Obama continue to suck up all the air (and money) in the room.

  • Gore may possibly step to the fore sometime in the HEAT of summer (when the concept of global warming will seem most real and tangible to people, especially those in states where agriculture is a primary source of income) and offer himself as the man with the plan to fix what ails us.

  • Half or possibly more of Clinton's support will defect to join the Gore campaign. I get the sense that many of the people who support her are giving her money, not because they like her and believe in her, but because she is seen by them (however erroneously) as being the most "electable" candidate. They fail to consider that name recognition and a close association with Bill Clinton can be liabilities as well as assets, especially when it comes to winning the hearts and minds of independent red state voters. Plus Gore is just more likeable and approachable. Fact is, Hillary scares the bejeezus out of most conservatives and that fact alone renders her unelectable IMO.

  • Some of Obama's supporters may defect to Gore, if only because they are nervous about having a Republican in the White House for another 4 years. Those folks' loyalty goes to whoever looks like a surefire winner, and Gore's got experience and credibility that Obama doesn't have (at least not yet).
    This is not a reflection of my personal feelings about Obama's leadership abilities, however. I think he'd make a fantastic long as he doesn't invade Pakistan (that disappointed me, I'll admit).

    Me with Barack Obama at the 2004 Dem. Convention in Boston

    Obama would be the obvious choice for VP if Gore starts leading in the polls and I'd wager that Obama would be his first choice for a winning ticket in '08. Whatever Gore does, he won't choose Hillary -- way too much water underneath the bridge in that relationship for them to be a functional team in the White House. To paraphrase Bob Dole: He knows it. She knows it. The American people know it. We all know it.

*Gosh* I hope Al runs...

And so long as I'm at it, here is a gratuitous picture of me with Bono. Because I can. And you can't stop me.

No comments: